Next generation of numerical models for inferring the volcano dynamics from geophysical observations

We present a 3D numerical model based on FEM (Finite Element Method) to jointly evaluate geophysical changes caused by dislocation and overpressure sources in volcanic areas. A coupled numerical problem was solved to estimate ground deformation, gravity and magnetic changes produced by stress redistribution accompanying magma migration within the volcano edifice. We successfully applied the integrated numerical procedure to image the inflation process of 2005-2006 and the magmatic intrusion of the 2008 eruption. A hybrid approach for forward and inverse geophysical modeling, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Finite Element Method (FEM), is proposed in order to properly identify the parameters of volcanic pressure sources from geophysical observations at ground surface. Our FEM-based approach improves the reliability of model-based assessments of geophysical observations that can prelude to an impending eruption.