A Theoretical Frame Analyzing the Likelihood of Territorial Expansion

The aim of this treatise is to propose an analytical framework that gives insight into where territorial expansion is most likely to happen and to give an example application. There are two distinctions that set apart the framework developed here and almost every other framework dealing with territorial expansion: 1) this framework attempts to account for both forcible and amenable expansion under a single rubric, and, 2) this framework is not concerned with explaining the specific reasons which drive an actor to expand. Rather the concern is the circumstances that make territorial expansion more or less likely to come to pass. These two differences lend to creating a framework that is much more versatile in its application and the ability to produce intelligence that is actionable in understanding the likelihood of territorial expansion, which in turn is more useful in proposing apt foreign-policy when dealing with the potential of shifting borders. This is a completely new and innovative way of looking at and understanding territorial expansion. To my knowledge there is no other framework dealing with territorial expansion in the way it is dealt with here.