European energy security : Turkey's role as a major conduit for the Greater Caspian hydrocarbon reserves

This thesis sets out Turkey’s current and potential role in the supply of Greater Caspian oil and natural gas to Europe, on the background of the EU’s need for energy and the geography of the regional supply of oil and gas. Turkey is central to his triangular analysis as it is negotiating to become a candidate for EU membership, has close links with the Caspian countries and has the potential to function as an East-West energy corridor. On a theoretical level, the thesis explores the links between geopolitics and energy security in a new world energy order, given the location of energy resources and the difficulties of transporting them to European markets, considering the position of Russia as a significant energy producer, key transit state in its own right and major Eurasian strategic player. In order to address these issues, the thesis examines the existing and potential pipeline infrastructure for natural gas and oil supplies from the Greater Caspian region to Europe via Turkey and discusses what role the EU is already playing, and might be expected to play in the future. The major policy-relevant finding of this thesis is that Turkey in the medium term likely will take on an essential role in European energy security as a major westward conduit for Caspian hydrocarbons. The thesis also argues that the EU's energy security cannot be achieved solely through an intra-EU approach to energy issues, but that it is necessary to adopt a holistic approach that also deals with external policy, including Turkey’s role and cooperation with the petroleum-producing countries in the Greater Caspian region. The major theoretical finding of the thesis is that geopolitics does matter, although it also depends on the will and ability of those representing a country such as Turkey to realize the geopolitical potential.