Studies of the 2007-09 credit crisis and the resulting recession have revealed the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical frameworks and their failure to propose adequate policy solutions. The presence in the economy of bank money and a financial system characterized by financial innovation and speculation changes the nature of credit creation. As J.A. Schumpeter (1934) and others scholars have recognized, a new perspective on the financial-growth relationship needs to be developed by filling the gaps in New Growth Theory and Evolutionary Theory - two Sons of Schumpeter - and in some way combining them. Structural factors are at the bottom of the persistence of the financial instability in the economy. The goal of this research is to explain the main hypothesis of the historical passage of the economy from a virtuous to a bad cycle and to show the existence of the wealth trap, which is a consequence of a high-technologically advanced financial system within the economic system. A non-linear ABM (Agent Based Model) called BFSE provides, through experimentation using ICEACE model (Erlingsson et al., 2011), interesting evidences of the centrality of the financial system and the bad cycle. Macroprudential and structural policies are introduced.
Studi condotti sulla crisi finanziaria del 2007-09 e la recessione economica hanno evidenziato l’inadeguatezza delle teorie predominanti e la loro inefficacia nel proporre adeguate soluzioni di policy. La presenza di moneta bancaria nell’economia e di un sistema finanziario caratterizzato da innovazione finanziaria e speculazione modificano profondamente la natura stessa del processo di credit creation. Una nuova prospettiva sulla relazione tra finanza e crescita economica necessita essere sviluppata cercando di colmare le lacune esistenti tra New Growth Theory e Evolutionary Theory, come J.A. Schumpeter (1934) e altri studiosi hanno evidenziato. I fattori strutturali sono alla base della persistente instabilita` finanziaria nell’economia. Questo studio tenta di spiegare l’ipotesi che sta alla base dell’intera analisi circa il passaggio avutosi nell'impianto strutturale dell'economia da un virtuous cycle ad un bad cycle, e dimostrare l’esistenza di cio` che definiamo wealth trap, la quale e` ipotizzata essere conseguenza di un sistema finanziario tecnologicamente avanzato, ma non socialmente avanzato. Un modello non lineare ad Agenti (AMB) chiamato BFSE (Based-line Financial System Economy) mostra , tramite la sperimentazione sul modello ICEACE(Erlingsson et al., 2011), evidenze sulla centralita` del sistema finanziario e dell’esistenza del bad cycle. Una discussione sulle macroprudential policies e le politiche strutturali e` introdotta.
POLICY PROPOSAL ON THE FINANCE AND GROWTH RELATIONSHIP: UNDERSTANDING THE SWITCH FROM "VIRTUOUS" TO "BAD" CYCLES
Lauretta, Eliana
2014
Abstract
Studies of the 2007-09 credit crisis and the resulting recession have revealed the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical frameworks and their failure to propose adequate policy solutions. The presence in the economy of bank money and a financial system characterized by financial innovation and speculation changes the nature of credit creation. As J.A. Schumpeter (1934) and others scholars have recognized, a new perspective on the financial-growth relationship needs to be developed by filling the gaps in New Growth Theory and Evolutionary Theory - two Sons of Schumpeter - and in some way combining them. Structural factors are at the bottom of the persistence of the financial instability in the economy. The goal of this research is to explain the main hypothesis of the historical passage of the economy from a virtuous to a bad cycle and to show the existence of the wealth trap, which is a consequence of a high-technologically advanced financial system within the economic system. A non-linear ABM (Agent Based Model) called BFSE provides, through experimentation using ICEACE model (Erlingsson et al., 2011), interesting evidences of the centrality of the financial system and the bad cycle. Macroprudential and structural policies are introduced.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14242/159522
URN:NBN:IT:UNICATT-159522