Should I Stay (Local) Or Should I Go (Global)? Explaining the Trajectories of Militant Islamist Groups in Syria

My PhD research contributes to explaining the trajectories of militant Islamist groups in Syria, with respect to what in literature on Islamist movements has been presented as the “local-global dilemma” — that is, to what extent these actors adopt a local-oriented or a more global-oriented approach. How can the divergent trajectories of these actors be better understood? More specifically, how can their shifting approaches be grasped? In trying to address these questions, the study will attempt to bridge research on conflict and political violence, social movement studies, and area studies. A cross-fertilization between these fields has occurred only fairly recently, with several gaps to be filled — one of them being theory development in the study of local- and global-oriented trajectories of Islamist groups. Moreover, the bulk of literature on “typologies” of Islamic militancy and global- and local-oriented strategies has often adopted a static and/or mono-dimensional approach, whereas the phenomenon is a fluid one; and the local, global, or “glocal” character of a group tends to be a multi-dimensional construct, going beyond a mere operational dimension per se, to include other dimensions (e.g. discourse).My thesis attempts to address such gaps by adopting a relational, dynamic, and mechanism-based approach, to understand what are the mechanisms leading militant Islamist groups, at different stages, to become more local or more global (that is, enacting what is respectively called a “downward” or “upward scale shift” in social movement studies). The research has a comparative case study design, as it seeks to conduct a contrastive analysis of three different actors operating in Syria in the post-2010 setting: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS); Ahrar al-Sham (AAS); and the so-called “Islamic State” organization (IS). The choice to focus on Syria has been dictated by the fact that after 2011 — i.e. after the popular revolution (al-thawra), the regime’s repression, and escalation into armed conflict — there has been an unprecedented diversification in the trajectories of militant Islamist groups, coupled with dynamics of competition and division. Most notably, for the first time, a formal divorce occurred between al-Qa‘ida and two groups that used to be its affiliates (IS and present-day HTS).Methodology-wise, the project resorts to a triangulation of different methods: (1) document analysis of primary sources; (2) fieldwork in Jordan and Turkey; (3) online and face-to-face interviews with a range of different figures (including experts and local observers, activists, and personalities with ties to the groups); (4) digital ethnography. Militant Islamist groups’ trajectories and the underlying explanatory mechanisms are reconstructed through process-tracing. First, the thesis will proceed to review the “typologies” of Islamic militancy, and especially theoretical debates on the “local-global dilemma”. It will then move on to propose a processual, dynamic, and relational framework drawing on social movement studies. After addressing methodological aspects, three chapters will be devoted to analyzing the case studies in depth. A comparative analysis of the case studies will ensue, aimed at comparing and contextualizing groups’ trajectories within the debate on typologies; while the conclusion will outline the limits of the study and avenues for further research.The study attempts to contribute to scholarship in several regards. Theoretically speaking, it seeks to further cross-fertilization in the fields of social movement studies, studies on conflict and political violence, and area studies; and from a social movement perspective, it seeks to advance the research program on contentious politics and further develop relevant concepts. Besides, it seeks to make a theoretical contribution to research on typologies of Islamic mobilization and militancy — specifically, by revising the “local-global dilemma” and proposing a more nuanced model. Empirically speaking, it seeks to advance knowledge on the case studies at hand, and provide a more fine-grained understanding of militant Islamist groups — challenging simplistic and security-centered approaches. Finally, these findings, taken together, will hopefully bear relevance beyond the specific case studies, as future research might probe whether the mechanisms identified in my thesis might also be seen in the local and global trajectories of other armed and non-armed (Islamist and non-Islamist) actors involved in contentious politics, beyond Syria.