Sorveglianza dell'influenza aviare: studio di un sistema di rilevazione precoce della circolazione virale in popolazioni di volatili selvatici

The emergency of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) subtype H5N1 has focused the attention of the world scientific community, requiring the prompt provision of effective control systems for early detection of the circulation of low pathogenic influenza H5 viruses (LPAI) in populations of wild birds to prevent outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HPAI) in populations of domestic birds with possible transmission to humans. The project stems from the aim to provide, through a preliminary analysis of data obtained from surveillance in Italy and Europe, a preliminary study about the virus detection rates and the development of mathematical models, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of avian influenza surveillance systems in wild bird populations, and to point out guidelines to support the planning process of the sampling activities. The results obtained from the statistical processing quantify the sampling effort in terms of time and sample size required, and simulating different epidemiological scenarios identify active surveillance as the most suitable for endemic LPAI infection monitoring in wild waterfowl, and passive surveillance as the only really effective tool in early detecting HPAI H5N1 circulation in wild populations. Given the lack of relevant information on H5N1 epidemiology, and the actual finantial and logistic constraints, an approach that makes use of statistical tools to evaluate and predict monitoring activities effectiveness proves to be of primary importance to direct decision-making and make the best use of available resources.