The Elusive Quest For Peace In Colombia. Past And Future Conflict Resolution Schemes

This thesis addresses the puzzle of heterogeneous trends in paramilitary violence in the two Colombian regions since the beginning of DDR process in 2003. The usual explanations derived from political conflict theories are improved with insights from organized crime research. The author argues that the occasional escalation of post DDR paramilitary violence at sub-regional level cannot be explained with the weakness of the state argument. In order to support this claim, the paper demonstrates the counter intuitive evidence that paramilitary violence correlates positively with the incidence of the state repressive intervention against paramilitary groups. More specifically, the paper finds that the paramilitaries challenged by the state use more violence either as a way of substituting their non-violent resources most affected by law enforcement activities, or in response to crackdown-related intensification of predatory tendencies within their respective organizations. Implications for future conflict resolution of Colombian Civil War are considered.