Examining the Preparatory Function of Counterfactual Thinking: Evidence on Content, Benefits, and Evaluation of Forgone Outcomes

Functional Theory, the prevailing perspective on the function of counterfactual thinking, posits that the primary purpose of this form of mental simulation is to prepare individuals for the future. However, recent findings have presented challenges to this dominant view. The debate on this topic has recently centered around the possibility that these contradictory results may have arisen from the use of tasks that are inadequate to observe the preparatory function of counterfactuals. Moreover, it has been stressed the importance of considering also more spontaneous (or, at least, more intrinsically motivated) instances of counterfactual thinking when reflecting over its function. In this thesis, Experiments 1 to 3 investigated questions related to the content of counterfactual modifications and their beneficial effects on future performance, utilizing a novel task designed specifically to address previous limitations advanced by the proponents of the Functional Theory. Nonetheless, most of our results did not align with what would have been expected if counterfactual thoughts were produced mainly in a preparatory fashion. Experiments 4 to 6, instead, explored individuals’ inclination to look for non-instrumental counterfactual information, which pertains to information about the outcome of forgone options that does not contribute to improving future outcomes. This type of information seeking, involving the comparison between an actual and a forgone outcome, can represent a proxy of an underlying, genuine process of counterfactual analysis, and thus provides valuable insights for the debate on the function of counterfactual thinking. Indeed, results indicated that individuals readily look for counterfactual information even when it cannot serve any preparatory goal, challenging the notion that the consideration of alternatives to past events is strictly tied to the presence of such goals. These findings, along with prior research, raise questions about the extent to which counterfactual thoughts are produced to prepare for the future, prompting a reevaluation of its underlying functions.