Modelling historical earthquakes scenarios in the Apennines: implications for seismic hazard assessment.

This thesis, conducted in collaboration with the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) of Milan Division, is supported by the Marche Region and by the University of Camerino as part of the FAR Project “NoHard - Novel approach for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake damage scenarios”. The primary objective of this research is to investigate historical earthquake seismogenic sources by means of ground motion simulations. The aim is to reduce uncertainties related to unknown or debated sources in areas affected by historical earthquakes. To achieve this, a novel methodology for simulating historical earthquake scenarios is proposed, utilizing a combination of empirical methods such as Ground Motion Models (GMMs) and Ground Motion Intensity Conversion Equations (GMICEs), with observed macroseismic intensity data. This approach enables the determination of the 3D geometry of the seismogenic sources, ultimately leading to the estimation of ground motion that is consistent with the source. Such an estimation is paramount for effective emergency planning, particularly in regions with a long seismic history, such as the Italian peninsula. The research focuses on three historical earthquakes that occurred in Central Italy during the XVIII century: the 1741 Fabriano (Imax 9 MCS, Mw 6.17), the 1799 Camerino (Imax 9-10 MCS, Mw 6.18), and the 1706 Maiella (Imax 10-11 MCS, Mw 6.84) earthquakes. Furthermore, to simulate historical earthquake scenarios at sites, the soil amplification is considered through the averaged shear-wave velocity of the uppermost 30 m (Vs,30). To enhance the accuracy of ground motion simulations, a Vs,30 map is developed for the study area, as detailed in Chapters 5 and 6