Dark Innovations: Tackling the Southern African Affordable Housing Supply Crisis through a Synergy of Digital Technology, Modern Methods of Construction and Bio-based Materials. A Radical Perspective.

Africa is the second fastest economic region of the world whose workforce will exceed that of India and China by 2035, states McKinsey and Company, 2012 cited in (Watson, 2014). Furthermore, according to UN-Habitat, in Zambia, “…1.3million Houses will need to be constructed by 2030 which is one house every 2 minutes…” (UN Habitat, 2012). In more recent research, the Centre for Affordable Housing data Yearbook 2023 reported the Zambia faces a housing shortage of up to 2.5 million Houses and thus is likely to grow to 3.3 million if no concerted action is taken (CAHF, 2023). This is a feat of immense proportions that solicits a radical approach. Through the lens of the theories of diffusion of Innovation, this thesis seeks to tackle the housing supply crisis by investigating how new viable methods of construction can be adopted by key stakeholders in the local population to enable faster more economically and environmentally sustainable housing construction. The context of Southern Africa was chosen for this investigation, specifically Zambia, South Africa and Botswana. A mixed-methods research approach was employed using a Structured Literature review, Survey questionnaire, Case Study Analysis of other sectors of innovation in the region and a Case Collaboration Project using Building Information Modelling to facilitate critical technical knowledge sharing during the design process. The research provides useful insights into the barriers to successful adoption of new construction methodologies and facilitating adequate decision making. The key contribution of this thesis lies in its underscoring of the gravity and complexity of the problem and the realisation that it must be tackled from the angles of technical methodology and the necessary strategies to adopt those methodologies. The Research thesis extends our knowledge of the critical barriers to adoption of new Bio-Based Construction Methodologies, devises a new methodology of working using Open Source Building Information Modelling and provides a preliminary Decision Making framework that can be a conceptual guide to future research. It is clear, the Technological innovations to alleviate the housing supply crisis already exist, but unless they are adopted in mass, they shall remain futile.