Statistics of Climate Change: Three Advanced Econometric Essays

This thesis addresses one of the most critical challenges for humanity in the short to medium term: climate change mitigation. The success of this process requires coordination across all sectors of society and effective management of global warming, which poses both environmental and economic threats. The impacts of climate change may destabilize the financial system, trigger recessions, and interfere with the transition itself. Climate finance is the field that studies climate-related risks to the economic and financial system, categorized into three main types: physical risk, transition risk, and liability risk. These risks are incorporated into economic models to assess exposure to climate change. However, financial institutions have shown significant shortcomings in integrating these risks into their internal models. Another emerging concern is the potential formation of a speculative bubble in green sectors (i.e. green bubble), whose effects on financial stability remain unclear. An additional layer of complexity arises from the significant variation in climate policies across countries, which has profound implications for energy production and carbon-intensive industries. The thesis is structured into three chapters. The first chapter introduces an innovative framework for studying and detecting green bubbles. The second chapter presents an algorithmic approach to enhance climate scenarios and macroeconomic forecasts. Finally, the third chapter explores the potential impacts of implementing the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the Indian iron and steel sector.