Contagion in a global context: a resilience model for Africa’s Central Banking

This doctoral thesis falls within the fields of International Macroeconomics from historical perspective and financial economics, specifically a mixture between international macroeconomics/finance, financial history, and empirical financial econometrics, then political economy of central banking and development by virtue of focusing on the Global South, especially Africa. It addresses a thematic which concerns the international propagation of financial idiosyncratic shocks between countries and markets, with a particular focus on Africa’s financial markets and economies. A strategic objective is to set a resilience model for African Central Banking, which implementation should strengthen the continent’s resilience to external financial contagion, and then prevent negative global financial crises’ spillovers in Africa. Another strategic objective is to raise, historical global inequalities dynamics, and monetary policy coordination problems between countries, dug by the globalization game, together with the international monetary cooperation frameworks. The thesis focus is then about diagnosing contagion of developed countries to African financial markets and economies, taking for technical references the 2007-09 global financial crisis (GFC) and the 1992-93 EMS crisis, this by utilizing a mixture of the narrative approach (see Romer and Romer 1989, 2004, 2010; Ramey and Shapiro 1998; Ramey 2011; Guajardo, Leigh, and Pescatori 2011; Cloyne 2011, 2012, 2013; Monnet, 2012, 2014; Bordo et al. 2017, 2019; Antipa and Bignon 2018; Eichengreen and Naef 2020, 2022), and Advanced Quantitative Methods (AQM), namely advanced and complex models of financial market modelling such as DCC-MGARCHX, as well as SVARs and dynamic Probit on panel data. An essay is also made as to Central Banking dynamics on the continent, along with an idea of repositioning Africa in a comparative historical perspective, into the current fast growing Global Financial Cycle (GFC) and Central Bank independence (CBI) debates.