Trend spaziali e temporali nella distribuzione di vertebrati target del Paleartico occidentale nel contesto del Global Change: conservazione e gestione a scala di paesaggio

Global biodiversity is undergoing a rapid decline due to a combination of climate change, land-use alterations, invasive species, overexploitation of resources, and pollution. These drivers, closely linked to human activities, have intensified since 1970, leading to ecosystem degradation, loss of wildlife abundance, and reduced ecological integrity. This biodiversity loss poses a direct threat to human well-being, as it undermines essential ecosystem services. According to IUCN assessments, 28% of evaluated species are at risk of extinction, with amphibians, mammals, and reptiles particularly affected. Additionally, local extinctions, caused by habitat fragmentation and insufficient ecological connectivity, exacerbate these challenges. Maintaining ecological corridors is critical to mitigating these risks, as they support species movement and population dynamics. This thesis explores species responses to global changes in Europe, focusing on spatial and temporal distribution patterns to inform conservation strategies. Special attention is given to mammals, owing to their mobility and successful conservation stories, such as the recovery of the Eurasian beaver and the reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx. Despite these successes, challenges like isolated populations, low genetic diversity, and human pressures persist. The study employs species distribution models (SDMs), ecological connectivity analyses, and individual-based models (IBMs) to address these issues. The first part of the thesis demonstrates how SDMs can predict range shifts and interactions between species. For example, the Eurasian beaver's range was modeled to incorporate climate change and river discharge, aiding reintroduction planning. Similarly, SDMs for the Eurasian lynx and golden jackal highlighted potential zones of sympatry and their future overlap, driven by the jackal’s expanding range. The second part focuses on ecological connectivity. Case studies on the Eurasian beaver in Italy and Spain identified key corridors for expansion, while analyses of the Eurasian lynx revealed good connectivity in Northern Europe but limited connectivity in Western and Central Europe. These findings underscore the need to strengthen connectivity in fragmented landscapes through targeted conservation actions, such as expanding protected areas. The third part integrates SDMs, connectivity analyses, and IBMs into a unified framework to support reintroduction efforts. For example, the reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx in the Apennines involved assessing ecological compatibility, identifying suitable sites, and simulating population dynamics under different scenarios. A multispecies connectivity analysis at the European scale further revealed that high connectivity often coincides with low human impact but highlighted the presence of critical corridors even in urbanized areas. These results suggest expanding the network of protected areas, as outlined in the European Biodiversity Strategy 2030, is essential to preserving connectivity and supporting species persistence. The thesis confirms the profound effects of global change on European biodiversity and demonstrates how advanced modeling techniques can guide conservation. By addressing both species-specific and broader ecological challenges, the research provides valuable tools to inform long-term biodiversity management in the face of ongoing environmental change.