Development of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for sustainable development: spatially explicit analysis of ecosystem services provided by the Ligurian coastal area.

Coastal zones are dynamic and complex ecosystems, where interactions between terrestrial, pelagic, benthic, and intertidal systems support biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. These areas play a critical role in climate regulation, food supply, and recreation, yet they are increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures such as urbanization, resource exploitation, and habitat degradation. Effective management of coastal zones is essential to maintain their ecological integrity and ensure the sustainable provision of ecosystem services. However, this requires tools that integrate environmental, social, and economic dimensions to address the challenges posed by competing demands on these ecosystems. This dissertation, presented as a collection of journal articles, focuses on the development of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) tailored for coastal and marine ecosystems. The SDSS integrates advanced modeling techniques, spatial data analysis, and stakeholder engagement to provide strategies for sustainable coastal management. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), cartographic, satellite, remote sensing, and field data, the research delivers a framework for assessing the impacts of human activities, identifying areas for conservation and restoration, and balancing ecosystem health with sustainable development goals. The first two studies investigate the biological and monetary valuation of natural capital in the Ligurian Sea, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. Using emergy analysis, the natural capital of the Ligurian coastal and marine area was valued at €2.11 billion in emergy terms, with annual environmental flows worth €1.43 billion. Protected areas were shown to have significantly higher values, highlighting the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors, such as coastal development and pollution, were found to have a stronger influence on natural capital distribution than natural variables, reinforcing the need for robust management interventions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of conservation measures and provide a baseline for monitoring and managing natural capital. Subsequent studies focus on habitat suitability models (HSMs) for two keystone species: Posidonia oceanica and Ericaria amentacea. These models identify potential areas for habitat expansion and restoration, providing insights into the environmental and human factors that influence species distributions. By combining predictive modeling with spatial analysis, these studies contribute to the design of targeted conservation efforts that align with regional and international policies, such as the EU Biodiversity Strategy and the Nature Restoration Law. A spatial risk assessment framework further contributes to the SDSS by assessing the balance between ecosystem service supply and human-induced pressures. Applied to the Ligurian coastal and marine area, this dynamic analysis highlights the trade-offs between human activities and ecosystem health. Regional differences in risk levels also identified critical areas for targeted interventions and the need for improved data collection in less studied regions. The flexibility of the framework is demonstrated through scenario analyses that highlight the dynamic interactions between human activities and ecosystem resilience, drawing attention to the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate risks and fill data gaps. The integration of these studies culminates in a WebGIS platform that serves as the operational interface of the SDSS. This user-friendly tool allows stakeholders, researchers, and policy makers to visualize, explore, and download geographic and alphanumeric data. The platform includes base maps and thematic maps derived from the dissertation’s research to facilitate transparent and informed decision-making processes. By addressing the spatial dimensions of environmental, economic, and social challenges, the SDSS supports the development of sustainable strategies that balance human activities with the conservation of coastal ecosystems. This dissertation contributes to advancing the theoretical and practical understanding of sustainable coastal management by demonstrating the value of integrative approaches and innovative tools.