AUTOCRATIZATION AND PUBLIC OPINION ONDEMOCRACY: INSIGHTS FROM TURKEY

In recent years, Freedom House (2023) and the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute (2023) have documented a significant global surge in autocratization. While much research addresses the drivers of this wave, its consequences—especially for public opinion—remain underexplored. This gap is critical, given that regime types and transitions shape citizens' public opinion on democracy, ultimately affecting the long-term stability and consolidation of autocratizing regimes. This dissertation examines how autocratization, through changes in political and informational environments, shapes citizens’ understanding of democracy, evaluations of regime democraticness, and support for democracy, using Turkey’s recent shift from a flawed democracy to a competitive authoritarian regime as a case study. The analysis draws on diverse data sources, including the World Values Survey, V-Dem and Freedom House indices, national statistics, and Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) electoral manifestos. Regarding citizens' understanding of democracy, the findings highlight how diminishing opportunities for meaningful democratic engagement have significantly eroded the liberal-procedural understanding of democracy among the populace. Notably, this erosion suggests that direct experiences with shifting political environments exerted a more substantial influence than the regime's mediated portrayals of democracy. Despite the AKP's increasing rhetorical emphasis on procedural legitimacy, citizens' emphasis on procedural aspects of democracy has declined. Concerning the social understanding of democracy, the early discourse and reform initiatives undertaken by the AKP initially bolstered citizens' understandings of social democracy. However, this influence receded as the regime reduced its focus on these themes. Concerning evaluations of regime democraticness, the study identifies a paradoxical positive correlation between autocratization and citizens' evaluations of democratic performance. Autocratization narrows experiences with democratic norms and strengthens governmental control over information. Consequently, misinformation accentuating regime achievements—combined with narrower democratic expectations aligned with official democratic claims—obscures observable democratic erosion. This effect is especially pronounced among older citizens socialized before significant autocratization, highlighting the importance of critical thinking skills and alternative media—often byproducts of modernization—in helping younger cohorts resist authoritarian narratives. Additionally, the regime’s procedural democratic rhetoric resonates strongly with individuals prioritizing procedural democracy, amplifying positive evaluations among them. Finally, regarding democratic support, the findings demonstrate a negative impact of autocratization. By disrupting democratic institutions and creating cognitive dissonance among citizens familiar with democratic norms, autocratization contributes to the perception of democracy as increasingly unattainable, diminishing democratic support across generational cohorts. Importantly, evaluations of regime democraticness moderate this effect: recognizing democratic backsliding promotes adaptive preference formation. Meanwhile, a strong liberal understanding of democracy serves as a protective factor—citizens prioritizing liberal and political rights are more resistant to accepting nondemocratic governance. Overall, this dissertation enriches our understanding by illuminating autocratization’s nuanced impacts on public opinion, offering critical insights into the dynamics of democratic stability and regime resilience in contemporary autocratizing contexts.