Essays on analyzing trade performance of Turkey

International Trade is defined as an economic phenomenon that covers how the goods and services are exchanged between countries through international borders. This study concentrates on the phenomenon both from an empirical and a theoretical viewpoint and focuses on analyzing Turkey’s trade performance. This thesis is composed of two essays. The first essay which is titled “The Overview of the Safeguard (SG) Actions of Turkey: Concepts, Measurement and Impacts”, reviews the literature on one of the most important trade remedies which is called the ‘SG actions’ and provides an empirical estimation on the impacts of the SG measures implemented by Turkey. The study is based on analysis of 4 and 6-digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HS) products and the data is gathered using United Nations (UN) Comtrade database. Our work provided evidence that Turkey's different types of SG policies between 2003 and 2013 had differential impacts among its trading partners and quotas were the most effective instrument for restricting imports. The second essay, titled “Exploring the Dynamics of the Sectoral Level Exports: The Turkish Example”, evaluates export dynamics in Turkey on a sectoral level. The research focused on estimating a model for Turkish manufacturing exports at the sectoral level for the period 1997q1-2014q4, using the 22 sectors that comprise Turkish manufacturing industry. The model allowed the sectoral impact of explanatory variables on both the demand and supply sides to be assessed. Since the estimation of the model is framed in the context of the cointegration analysis in panel data, the econometric techniques to be used in the study included the Pedroni cointegration test and the application of dynamic ordinary least squares (OLS) for the estimation of the long run equilibrium relationship. The essay also focused on the estimation of exchange rate pass-through for the period 2010q1-2019q1. For the sake of the analysis, data gathered from various sources such as Ministry of Economy of Turkey (which became the Ministry of Trade in the New Presidential System in 2018), Central Bank of Turkey, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) were used. The peculiarity of the study consists key analysis of the problem regarding the lack of understanding of the dynamics of Turkish sectoral level exports during the 2001 and 2008 crisis in Turkey by valid techniques. The study shows us how critical time periods cointegrate export determinants in different sectoral levels.