Negative spillover effects of low-carbon energy technologies: application to the Italian context

This research presents an integrated approach for the evaluation of spillover, multiplier, and feedback effects associated with the diffusion of renewable energy technologies, specifically solar and wind, within the Italian context. The main objective is to analyze and quantify these effects through the development of an extended multiregional method, capable of capturing not only the economic dimensions but also the social and environmental ones, thus providing a systemic view of the impact of sustainable energy policies. The analysis focuses on several scenarios, including Italy and/or the rest of the world, and China, and integrates economic, energy, and environmental data. This allows for the assessment of how renewable energy growth dynamics influence not only the areas of direct implementation but also the regions connected through supply chains, trade, and technological flows.The research is structured into three main phases:1. Critical review of existing literature and models on spillover, multiplier, and feedback effects in the energy sector, aimed at identifying key methodological gaps and potential applications within the Italian context;2. Development of the extended multiregional model, which integrates input–output economic data with social and environmental indicators to capture interdependencies between regions and sectors, considering the value chains of solar and wind technologies; 3. Comparative evaluation of the effects, conducted through simulations across four differentiated development scenarios, to analyze the territorial and sectoral distribution of economic, environmental, and social impacts resulting from the diffusion of renewable energies.The results confirm the importance of paying close attention to the three analyzed effects, highlighting how regional interactions can amplify or attenuate the benefits derived from energy transition policies. In particular, from an environmental perspective, the indicators reveal a transfer of impacts to other geographical contexts compared to where the sustainable action originally took place, suggesting the presence of relocation or ecological compensation dynamics.These findings emphasize the need for a holistic approach that aligns renewable energy promotion strategies with coordinated territorial planning, capable of balancing local economic benefits with the reduction of global environmental impacts and the protection of social well-being.The examined scenarios and the proposed methodology support a more integrated decision-making process, demonstrating the model’s ability to adapt to different geographical contexts. This research represents a step forward in the study of transfer, internal, and feedback effects, positioning them as a key strategy to guide the energy transition toward widespread sustainability, capable of involving not just a single geographical area but the entire planet.