Ecological modeling for effective policy making and green economy development in Gargano area, south Italy

Place-based approaches and tailored solutions are essential for fostering sustainable development in peripheral and marginalised rural areas. This kind of development strategy valorises local assets, enhances social cohesion and increases communities’ capacities to handle the social, economic and ecological challenges they face, strengthening the local system’s resilience. This study explores the potential of the UNESCO Global Geopark (UGGP) model as a possible sustainable development strategy for Gargano, lagging behind rural area in the South of Italy, renowned for its biodiversity, cultural heritage, and geological diversity. Notwithstanding its unique social, cultural and natural capital, Gargano struggles with persistent socio-economic challenges, environmental degradation compounded by a lack of social cohesion. The current research seeks to evaluate the social acceptability of the UGGP model among local stakeholders, addressing two research questions:1) To what extent do stakeholders perceive the UGGP model as a driver for sustainable development? 2) What actions can foster greater acceptance of the UGGP model in the region? A mixed-methods approach combining SWOT-SOr analysis and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was used to evaluate stakeholder perceptions. The study also incorporates Stakeholder Analysis and examination of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes to contextualize socio-ecological interactions. The findings of the research reveal that UGGP-related variables are not widely perceived by stakeholders as effective development drivers compared to tangible economic interventions through established development agencies. This underscores the following: 1) there is the need to raise awareness of the UGGP model’s benefits, especially economic; 2) strengthen key stakeholder participation; and 3) to align UGGP initiatives with local priorities set by stakeholders. Key insights from the research include leveraging local knowledge and entrepreneurship mindset to enhance the model’s acceptability while addressing the untapped potential of UGGP policies through complementary strategies. The research identifies a methodological gap in integrating stakeholder perceptions with UGGP- specific drivers and contributes to the academic discourse on sustainable development frameworks. Recommendations emphasize community-centric strategies, improved awareness campaigns, and future research to monitor the evolving perceptions of UGGP policies. By aligning UGGP initiatives with local economic goals, this study highlights the model’s potential to drive meaningful progress in sustainable development while fostering greater acceptance and support among stakeholders.