MODELING APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION IN ALPINE FORESTS.

This thesis investigates the complex relationship between forests, climate change and management, focusing on their interactions through the lens of ecosystem services and sustainability. The aim of the thesis is to analyse the role of alpine forests, harvested wood product and forest management in climate change mitigation and adaptation, and how different development trajectories can affect this role. The study area covers the forests of Valle Camonica and part of Valtellina, key Alpine landscapes in Lombardy (Italy). Three main research papers compose the work: the first analyzes substitution effects of wood products through Life Cycle Assessment and remote sensing, demonstrating the short-term importance of timber substitution for decarbonization. The second integrates ecological modeling with optimization to simulate forest growth, harvested wood products, and substitution effects under different climate and management scenarios, highlighting the importance of forest carbon stocks preservation and the relevance of preventive silviculture. The third paper applies sustainability indicators within the DPSIR framework and ecological modeling to evaluate scenarios inspired by SSP narratives, linking environmental, social and economic dimensions. Results show that collaborative and sustainability-oriented pathways provide greater long-term benefits, while fragmented exploitation undermines both resilience and equity. Overall, the thesis offers insights and decision-support information for climate-smart forestry in Alpine contexts, providing results about climate and management impact on forests with three different approaches.