CAN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET DRIVE VIABLE RESIDENTIAL RETROFIT? UNLOCKING THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP RETROFITS THROUGH BUSINESS MODELS AND OFF-SITE CONSTRUCTION

The construction sector faces the critical challenge of reducing the costs of deep energy retrofits, essential to ensure the economic viability of the transition towards decarbonisation of the built environment. This doctoral research proposes an integrated analytical framework structured across three complementary dimensions. The first dimension empirically investigates the real estate green premium by applying hedonic regression models to four Italian urban markets. Findings reveal significant differences between major cities (10–20%) and medium-sized cities (15–39%), showing that energy efficiency generates territorially differentiated value, generally insufficient to cover investment costs without targeted public support. The second dimension examines the economic and financial viability of retrofit interventions through the comparative analysis of innovative business models. The Managed Energy Service Agreement (MESA) integrated with off-site technologies is evaluated using discounted cash flow analysis for three investor profiles. Profitability depends on investor type and the ability to capitalise on the price premium, with positive NPV mainly observed for developers in highly dynamic real estate markets. The third dimension quantifies cost reduction dynamics through empirical learning curves from 19 industrialised retrofit projects in France. The analysis documents cumulative cost reductions exceeding 45% for single-family homes and 30% for apartments, with average learning rates of 6.4–6.6%, attributable to accumulated expertise and production serialisation. The scientific originality of this study lies in the systemic integration of three dimensions: the real estate value proposition, the MESA business model, and off-site industrialised technologies. This approach overcomes the fragmentation typical of existing literature, providing evidence on the need for targeted public support and identifying minimum conditions to activate significant learning economies. Overall, the research clarifies the dynamics of real estate markets related to energy efficiency, empirically validates the economic feasibility of industrialised retrofits, and quantifies the cost reduction mechanisms resulting from learning, contributing to both the theory and practice of real estate economics in the energy transition.