AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF GEOMATICS TECHNIQUES. THE CASE OF WHEAT (TRITICUM AESTIVUM L.) PRODUCTION IN EL FAYOUM REGION, EGYPT.

Egypt is one of the biggest importer for wheat, worldwide. Thus, many national plans have been conducted aiming at increasing wheat production and reducing the gap between production and consumption. Agro-ecological research at multiple scale and field experiments are therefore needed to study and assess the land suitability for wheat cultivation and the effect of various production constraints on wheat production. El Fayoum Governorate, as one of the main wheat production regions in Egypt, was selected as a case study in the current research. With the overall aim of monitoring and improving the understanding of past and actual constrains of wheat production in the area, a multiple scale approach (field, local, regional scale) was designed, integrating field agronomic surveys, geostatistics, and remote sensing. At field level, an experiment was carried out to assess the effect of soil salinity on wheat production, as soil salinity is the major problem threatening the agricultural production in the area. The experimental work was carried out to cover several locations with different salinity levels and where different wheat varieties were planted. Moreover, soil salinity monitoring during the last five years was performed. More specifically, the field experiment was performed in 3 different geographical locations with different electric conductivity levels. The first two locations successfully produced wheat, while the third location did not. The main logical justification related to the third location is the very high existing level of electric conductivity (16.5 dS m-1). The achieved results confirmed that salinity has a strong effect on wheat production, as the location characterized by 4.6 dS m-1 gave a mean production of 8.1 t/ha, while the location with 8.64 dS m-1 gave a mean harvest of 4.9 t/ha. In addition, the 1000-grain weight was 58.4 g in the location with 4.6 dS m-1, and 53.2 g for the location with 8.64 dS m-1. At local scale, soil salinity monitoring was applied at Sinnuris District comparing the soil samples collected in the framework of this study in 2014 with available soil salinity data collected in 2009. Geo-statistical Kriging technique was utilized in order to produce the soil salinity map for Sinnuris District for the periods 2009 and 2014. Then, a detailed comparison between recent and older map was performed. The results show a significant improvement in soil salinity, with an increase of the area of low electric conductivity (i.e. < 2 dS m-1) from 1.28 ha in 2009, to 9119.16 ha in 2014. This impressive result could be related to the construction of a new sub-surface drainage system in the area, which started in 2007, and demonstrate the effectiveness of water management policies in Sinnuris District. Land use/ land cover change analysis was performed to provide a general overview of the landscape dynamics in the El Fayoum region over the last thirty years, with a specific focus on urban expansion, land reclamation, and agricultural transition processes. To meet this task, a set of Landsat TM/OLI multispectral images acquired in 1984, 1998, and 2013 were classified using supervised techniques and maps of the main land covers (i.e. agricultural area, orchards, bare soil, desert, water bodies, urban areas) were generated. The classification accuracy has been evaluated by means of ground truth GPS data collected in the field. Finally, post-classification change detection analysis has been applied to identify the main changes occurred in the study area during the considered time frame. Classification accuracy for all the images was satisfactory (overall accuracy > 90%, K > 0.9). Regarding land cover changes, the results indicate that during the 1984-1998 period the rapid population growth has led to a strong expansion of urban areas (+21%) and a concurrent expansion of agricultural lands (+36%) at the expenses of orchards, but also of deserts and bare lands, thanks to relevant land reclamation projects. Between 1998 and 2013, the trend of urban expansion continued steeply (+50%), but a dramatic decline in agricultural (-16%) and orchard (-41%) areas occurred, accompanied also by an increase in bare soils (+57%). This trends suggest possible overexploitation and depletion of the soil resources in the area, with consequent decrease of land productivity and soil degradation processes leading to serious loss of agricultural production potential. Land reclamation projects seem not always effective in a long term perspective, as many reclaimed lands were re-converted into bare soils after few years. Given the strong soil salinization problems reported in the study area, more efficient irrigation and water management strategies are deemed fundamental to reverse this trend. The results of this study demonstrate how an integrated analysis of traditional agronomic field experimental data and modern technologies such as remote sensing and geographic information systems can be a powerful tool for multiple-scale analysis of complex agricultural landscapes such as the El Fayoum region. Current general trends of urban expansion and loss in land production in the area calls for immediate intervention by policy makers, preferentially to improve water and irrigation management rather than reclaiming new land. An efficient implementation of water drainage system project in the Sinnuris District lead to a strong improvement of soil quality reducing salinity in a short time. Given the strong effect on wheat production of soil salinity, further agronomic experimentation for identifying salt-tolerant wheat varieties could also greatly contribute to wheat production increase in the region.